Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.305002 29.125163 32.338409 36.322197 41.204696 47.100647 54.936051
2025-02-16 22.520244 26.153794 30.664879 36.863746 45.498262 57.714385 77.712946
2025-02-23 19.716486 23.662195 28.869056 36.607194 48.593393 68.235390 108.588334
2025-03-02 17.840084 21.968576 27.690501 36.778670 52.289083 81.793725 161.701816
2025-03-09 16.304921 20.469262 26.461459 36.498408 55.103514 95.848402 248.359012
2025-03-16 15.084426 19.231647 25.384023 36.161473 57.665516 111.755353 418.193838
2025-03-23 14.085086 18.186733 24.427995 35.789786 60.016151 129.949726 845.530552
2025-03-30 13.288298 17.352167 23.678607 35.611447 62.741326 153.467890 3158.295116
2025-04-06 12.499932 16.453156 22.708376 34.816490 63.719765 173.026624 NaN
2025-04-13 12.237050 16.337481 23.019026 36.588221 72.206610 249.703648 NaN
2025-04-20 11.673806 15.695469 22.345736 36.188690 74.442551 301.684893 NaN
2025-04-27 11.258226 15.257612 21.982871 36.389163 78.754901 401.059692 NaN
2025-05-04 10.894946 14.886639 21.716802 36.799460 84.326751 591.929641 NaN
2025-05-11 10.525379 14.479632 21.344897 36.903455 89.052407 916.032190 NaN
2025-05-18 10.121719 13.989571 20.772884 36.429074 91.328794 1368.714907 NaN
2025-05-25 9.812802 13.640770 20.438348 36.491164 96.189398 3014.483464 NaN
2025-06-01 9.487998 13.245479 19.980084 36.161808 99.176672 9444.397479 NaN
2025-06-08 9.185993 12.873021 19.536979 35.804308 101.967978 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 8.904604 12.521888 19.109697 35.426184 104.574183 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 8.661959 12.226399 18.771930 35.244688 108.390571 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.380292 11.849445 18.244636 34.460368 108.103367 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.338879 11.894885 18.579821 36.199675 126.617586 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.119486 11.610927 18.211421 35.806437 129.571342 NaN NaN